Super-sized rate cuts on horizon after $90 billion sharemarket rout

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Super-sized rate cuts on horizon after $90 billion sharemarket rout
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As the Reserve Bank board met on Monday, $90 billion was wiped from the sharemarket and investors began to bet on a large pre-Christmas interest rate cut.

Markets now believe there will be an interest rate cut by the end of the year, and possibly two.The ASX200 suffered a 3.7 per cent fall on Monday, after a 2.1 per cent drop last Friday.Home buyers could be delivered a super-sized interest rate cut before Christmas to protect the domestic economy from a US-led recession after the Australian sharemarket suffered its biggest fall since the depths of the pandemic.

Markets, which until early last Wednesday put the chance of an interest rate rise this week at one-in-four, now believe there is a 12 per cent chance of a rate cut after the RBA’s meeting concludes on Tuesday. The rout on markets started after lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data in the United States, where the unemployment rate jumped in July to a three-year high of 4.3 per cent. Markets there believe the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next month, starting with half a percentage point.

The Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation measure for July, released on Monday, fell to its lowest level in 31 months, down to 2.8 per cent from 3.2 per cent. It’s the first time the institute’s inflation measure has been within the Reserve Banks 2-3 per cent target band since 2021, and well below last week’s official measure of inflation.

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