A Super El Niño is on its way, and scientists warn that it could bring extreme heat 'nearly everywhere' this summer, with the potential for global average temperatures to rise by as much as 3°C. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted an 80 per cent likelihood of the weather phenomenon occurring during June-August 2026, with a 90 per cent chance of it continuing until at least November.
Large areas of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea are currently 5°C hotter than usual, adding to mounting evidence a Super El Niño is imminent.
Satellite images show an ongoing marine heatwave off the northern and western coasts of France, the southern coast of Spain and in the sea off Monaco. The waters off the coast of Dover, Eastbourne and Brighton are also significantly warmer than usual, with areas of dark red indicating soaring temperatures. This comes amid warnings that a 'Super El Niño' - marked by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean - is inching closer.
Experts from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recently predicted there is an 80 per cent likelihood of the weather phenomenon occurring during June-August 2026. Current signs point to this year being one of the strongest El Niño patterns ever recorded. And it could bring extreme heat 'nearly everywhere', with the potential for global average temperatures to rise by as much as 3°C this summer.
El Niño years form part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and are marked by sustained warm temperatures across the Pacific Ocean. Where this ocean surface warming exceeds 2°C, the event is often referred to as a 'super El Niño'. While each El Niño varies, the event typically brings increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
In contrast, there will be drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia. Scientists say there's a strong chance 2026 will be the hottest year ever recorded. That could mean beating the record set in 2024, when global warming exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average for the first time.
From late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific - the area used as a monitoring reference - was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to the WMO. These increasing surface temperatures are being fed by unusually warm subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, where temperatures are a whopping 6°C above average. A Super El Niño is on its way, and is almost certain to arrive this summer.
That's according to scientists from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), who warn there's now an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August 2026, and a 90 per cent chance this will continue until at least November. The world is on track for 'extraordinary extreme weather' later this year, scientists have warned, as global ocean temperatures indicate a record-breaking heat is likely. The UK's top 5 warmest years are 2025, 2022, 2023, 2014, and 2024.
While its effects on the UK are yet to be determined, meteorologists say El Niño's intensity will likely be comparable to the 1997/98 event which saw global temperatures reach their highest on record. During its development, the UK experienced an exceptionally hot, sunny and humid August characterised by heatwaves. The average maximum temperature at Heathrow in August 1997 was 25.8°C, with a top temperature of 31.5°C reached.
However, while the phenomenon typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the UK during summer months, it also increases the likelihood of colder winters. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: 'We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.
'The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. 'The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. 'Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.
' Scientists say there is an extremely high, 86 per cent, chance that one year between now and 2030 will smash the temperature record last set in 2024. Yesterday, it emerged that the impending weather phenomenon could add hundreds to your grocery bill.
'We import two-fifths of our food from overseas,' Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), sai
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