'Super El Niño' could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs, forecasters say

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'Super El Niño' could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs, forecasters say
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Patrick Pester is the trending news writer at Live Science. His work has appeared on other science websites, such as BBC Science Focus and Scientific American. Patrick retrained as a journalist after spending his early career working in zoos and wildlife conservation.

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Planting trees in the sea could act as a huge carbon sink and save millions of dollars in storm damage every year. What is stopping us from doing it?Startling archaeological finds, the Gulf Stream signals possible collapse, our sun's mass migration, the world's smallest QR code, and have we hit peak oil?'The warming trend nearly doubled after 2014': The rate of global warming has accelerated more in the past decade than ever beforeCannibal orcas identified near Russia, two 'extinct' marsupials found, humans do cranial modification, China's oracle bones reveal climate disaster, and a barefoot volcanologist18 of Earth's biggest river deltas — including the Nile and Amazon — are sinking faster than global sea levels are rising'Humans can't be considered to be separate from the environment': Award-winning scientist Meha Jain on using satellites and real world experiences to help farmers in India facing a precarious futureContact me with news and offers from other Future brandsSign up for the latest discoveries, groundbreaking research and fascinating breakthroughs that impact you and the wider world direct to your inbox.Feed your curiosity with an exclusive mystery every week, solved with science and delivered direct to your inbox before it's seen anywhere else.Sign up to our free science & technology newsletter for your weekly fix of fascinating articles, quick quizzes, amazing images, and moreSign up to our monthly entertainment newsletter to keep up with all our coverage of the latest sci-fi and space movies, tv shows, games and books.Discover this week's must-see night sky events, moon phases, and stunning astrophotos. Sign up for our skywatching newsletter and explore the universe with us!Forecasters predict that a potentially supercharged El Niño is coming this summer, and it could push temperatures across the globe to unprecedented extremes.that there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August. In other words, El Niño is more likely than not this year.-Southern Oscillation , a natural climate pattern of atmospheric and sea temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. This brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern U.S., while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. have an increased risk of flooding.Last year, the oceans absorbed a record-breaking amount of heat — equivalent to 12 Hiroshima bombs exploding every second 'The warming trend nearly doubled after 2014': The rate of global warming has accelerated more in the past decade than ever before, the cold phase of ENSO, when sea surface temperatures fall at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as the sea warms, according to the latest Climate Prediction Center announcement. El Niño will then occur if sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9 F above the long-term average.. A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures reach at least 3.6 F above the long-term average. "Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter,"Accuweather's forecasters estimate that there's a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of the hurricane season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a 1-in-3 chance of a strong El Niño emerging between October and December but describes the potential strength as"very uncertain."Get the world’s most fascinating discoveries delivered straight to your inbox.activity over the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic, which typically leads to a less-active hurricane season overall.triggers a warm El Niño and then a cold La Niña every two to seven years, on average. However, they aren't always on time. Equally, while each phase tends to last around nine to 12 months, their duration varies. The El Nino cometh. This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures , and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp. pic.twitter.com/agqcicaYIaEarth was last in El Niño between May 2023 and March 2024. On that occasion, El Niño was close to being a super El Niño, but while sea surface temperatures breached the 3.6 F threshold, they didn't remain above the threshold for long enough to qualify. The last super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016. Missing megaflood: How did the Mediterranean transform from a salt-filled bowl to a deep sea if it wasn't a cataclysmic deluge?heat in 2023 and 2024, with 2024 currently the hottest year on record. If El Niño emerges in 2026, then the year will get warmer, but is unlikely to be as hot as 2024 — we started the year in La Niña, after all. Global temperatures in 2027, however, could be pushed to record-breaking heights, according to a post on the "The El Nino cometh," Hausfather wrote."This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures , and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical lag b/w ENSO and surface temp." It's important to remember that a variety of factors influence the weather and climate. The planet is already warming due toPatrick Pester is the trending news writer at Live Science. His work has appeared on other science websites, such as BBC Science Focus and Scientific American. Patrick retrained as a journalist after spending his early career working in zoos and wildlife conservation. He was awarded the Master's Excellence Scholarship to study at Cardiff University where he completed a master's degree in international journalism. He also has a second master's degree in biodiversity, evolution and conservation in action from Middlesex University London. When he isn't writing news, Patrick investigates the sale of human remains.'The warming trend nearly doubled after 2014': The rate of global warming has accelerated more in the past decade than ever beforeMissing megaflood: How did the Mediterranean transform from a salt-filled bowl to a deep sea if it wasn't a cataclysmic deluge?Arctic blast probably won't cause trees to explode in the cold — but here's what happens if and when they do go boomA single injection of mRNA-like treatment could help heart muscle heal after a heart attack in mice and pigs. Could it work in humans too?A single injection of mRNA-like treatment could help heart muscle heal after a heart attack in mice and pigs. Could it work in humans too? Equestrian statue of Marcus Aurelius: The only surviving larger-than-life-size statue of a pagan Roman emperor — a rarity that Michelangelo refurbished

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