The Super Bowl 59 betting patterns are noteworthy for the lack of line movement on the spread. The Kansas City Chiefs opened as a 1.5-point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and the line has barely budged, unlike the previous meeting two years ago. Experts analyze the betting trends, including moneyline wagers and the over-under, as fans prepare for the big game.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes against the Philadelphia Eagles during the NFL Super Bowl 57 football game Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. is on the horizon and the Super Bowl betting patterns have been notable for one specific reason: The lack of line movement on the spread.
Kansas City is a -115 moneyline favorite at DraftKings , while the over-under on the point total is at 48.5.opened the total at 49.5 before taking “a flurry of bets on the under,” last week that pushed the total down to 48.5. “If we find the is overwhelming, we could drop to Chiefs -1 to encourage Chiefs money on the spread. But that would be the low point. A lot of people have asked me if the Eagles will go off as the favorite, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.”Experienced bettors know that if you think Kansas City wins, you’re better off laying the points in order to reduce the amount of “juice” you pay.
The spread is so small that the value from the Eagles' bettor’s perspective is on the moneyline because it’s unlikely that Kansas City wins this game by 1 or 2 points - the Meanwhile, if you want to play it safe backing Kansas City and you think the two-point conversions might cause this game to land on 1, just take the Chiefs' moneyline.The two-point conversion angle makes this number a bit more nerve-wrecking than in the past, but it’s still unlikely to land on 1. Betting is all about probability.Speaking of probabilities, the chances of beating Patrick Mahomes in a one-score game are frighteningly low.
“We saw some bets on the under and respected those bets,” Avello said. “But on a personal basis, I know how will bet this game: They’ll bet it Over. What have you seen from both teams lately? It might not mean what you think it does. Avello noted that this Chiefs' defense is merely, “better than average, but when the game is on the line they seem to come up with a key blitz.”Avello also pointed to the fact they were well-prepared to stop Bills' QB Josh Allen on Buffalo’s ill-fated QB sneaks because Kansas City knew he always goes left.Jalen Hurts had a great case to be named Super Bowl MVP in a loss last time the Chiefs and Eagles played in the Super Bowl.
The biggest bet on Barkley to win Super Bowl MVP at DraftKings came on Championship Sunday - one bettor laid down $2,500 at +500 odds, which will pay $12,500.A quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP in 13 of the past 18 years, but if anyone can end a nearly 30-year drought of running back MVP, it’s Barkley.
The Chiefs haven’t allowed a single running back to top 100 yards rushing in the postseason since 2019 - a streak of 18 straight games without allowing one back to rush for 100 yards. I’ve yet to make my Super Bowl MVP bet, but I’m leaning toward taking Kansas City - how can you go against Mahomes and Reid in a big game? It can’t be me. In that sense, I’ll say Mahomes is my Super Bowl MVP bet. A long shot? Chiefs’ rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy .
The veteran oddsmakers mentioned some receiving props that were “about 90%” on one side and looking at the data it’s easy to tell which players he’s talking about. The most popular passing prop bet is Patrick Mahomes to have 225+ passing yards . Mahomes' rushing prop total of 25+ yards is the fifth-most bet prop.
If you’re unfamiliar, these are special prop bet markets tied to Swift’s song titles. For instance, “Fifteen” is a bet for Patrick Mahomes to have 15+ rushing yards and 215+ passing yards in the regular season, according to nflpenalties.com. The Eagles, meanwhile, were second-to-last in the league in opponent penalties called .Roughing the passer calls against Patrick Mahomes are what set X ablaze. Mahomes drew the second-most roughing the pass calls this year , trailing only Justin Fields .
Of all the players in the game, DeAndre Hopkins of Kansas City drew the most pass interference calls in the regular season , one more than Philly’s A.J. Brown. Coaching is always a huge factor at this stage, and the Chiefs have two of the best in Andy Reid and his long-time DC Steve Spagnuolo.
SUPERBOWL NFL BETTING CHIEFS EAGLES SPREAD MONEYLINE OVER-UNDER
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