Sudan is sliding towards civil war

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Sudan is sliding towards civil war
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Behind the latest clashes is a struggle for power between the country’s de facto leader and a warlord, as well as the complex constellations of political parties, militias, rebel leaders and foreign powers allied to them

The warning signs of an impending crisis were not hard to read. For months tensions had been building between the two most powerful figures in Sudan’s military government: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s de facto leader since a coup in 2019; and Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo , a warlord. He is the leader of the Rapid Support Forces , a paramilitary unit that grew out of the Janjaweed militias accused of genocidal acts of murder and rape in Darfur.

Behind the latest clashes is a struggle for power between General Burhan and Mr Dagalo, and between the complex constellations of political parties, militias, rebel leaders and foreign powers allied to them. This is a fight over who will control the direction of Sudan’s political transition, which began four years ago with the overthrow of the brutal Islamist regime led by the former dictator, Omar al-Bashir.

In December, leaders of the civilian bloc and the junta signed a provisional accord promising a fully civilian government and elections in two years. If implemented, it would help Sudan’s collapsing economy by opening the door to foreign aid and debt relief. But it would also mean the integration of the, and the creation of a single national army under civilian oversight. A final agreement was due to be signed in early April.

Islamists within the army may therefore have decided to launch a quick strike in order to “reassert Islamist control over the transition and the country”, argues Mr Horner. In recent months both sides have steadily built up their forces and reinforced their positions in the capital and other strategic places. Tanks were spotted moving over the Nile in Khartoum. General Burhan and Mr Dagalo were said to be no longer on speaking terms in the days before the start of the fighting.

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