Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, have risen in the first quarter of 2024, alongside an increase in retail sales across the country.
So far, 2024 isn’t going quite how it was supposed to for the US economy: Inflation has been higher than expected and household spending seems to have lost some momentum.
In April, economists expect monthly inflation to step back down to a pace more in line with the end of 2023, while they see growth in retail sales, which aren’t adjusted for inflation, slowing. At that meeting, Fed officials kept interest rates at the highest level in more than two decades, where they’ve been since July.
There are good reasons to think the recent uptick in inflation is set to reverse in the coming months. One of the main culprits behind the elevated figures in the consumer-price index has been a slower-than-expected pace of moderation in rental inflation. That indicator tends to lag, in part because changes are reflected in the official data only when people move or renew their leases, and should soon start following measures of current rents lower.
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