The size of the famous Bristol Bay run is forecasted to be above the long-term average, but the economic outlook is unclear.
A Bristol Bay sockeye salmon “mob” gathers in August 2004 in the Wood River, which flows into the Nushagak River just north of Dillingham, the region’s largest community. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game has forecasted a strong 2025 run of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon, though there are many uncertainties.
That is 38% more than the long-term average of 37.07 million, calculated from 1963 to this year, the department’s forecast said. However, it is 16% smaller than the most recent 10-year average, a period that included extremely large runs and consecutive records in 2021 and 2022. “Forecasting future salmon returns is inherently difficult and uncertain,” the department said in its statement.
Payments to fishers for their salmon upon delivery, known as the ex-vessel value, totaled $128.1 million this year, down from the 20-year average of $193.4 million. However, this year’s total value improved over the difficult year prior, when the ex-vessel value was only $117.4 million.
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