Goldman Sachs just updated its definitive checklist for predicting stock market crashes — and its conclusion points to years of lower returns for investors
3. Inflation:
This variable tends to be associated with excessively tight monetary policy, since the Federal Reserve usually hikes interest rates to try and contain inflation.Many bear markets are preceded by flat or inverted yield curves. Goldman finds that the 0-to-6-quarter forward spread — the gap between the current fed funds rate and the expected rate six quarters ahead — serves as a useful bear market indicator.
Oppenheimer added: "But, at the same time, the prospects for relatively low profit growth through 2020 and 2021 should limit the upside for equities. Our profit growth forecasts are for single digit growth, on average, over the next couple of years, and the absence of further rate cuts and lower yields suggests that valuations are likely to be close to peak."
The biggest downside risk for 2020 — and one that is not captured by the bear market indicator — is an election result that pushes down stocks, Oppenheimer said. And so with lower returns on the horizon, what's an investor to do? Goldman offered the following investing advice: :' stocks that hold the potential for strong growth but don't have the extreme valuations of many secular growers.for ideas. It contains stocks with above-average dividend yields, reasonable growth prospects, and near-record valuation discounts.
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