The Bills traded their star receiver to the Texans for draft pick consideration. What does the deal mean for both sides -- and who won the deal?
Matt Miller is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation's top pro prospects. A Missouri native, Matt joined ESPN in 2022 and also contributes to SportsCenter, NFL Live and ESPN Radio. You can follow Matt on Twitter via @nfldraftscout.in Houston.
The odd thing about this deal is that situationally, the Bills sure need Diggs more than the Texans. Houston now has a plethora of riches at receiver, given that it already had an exceptional duo in Collins and Dell. They both ranked in the top 10 in overall score in. Sure, the offseason isn't done, and this year's draft includes an exceptional wide receiver class.
This deal will ultimately hinge on which version of Diggs the Texans get going forward. He started the 2023 campaign on fire, with five 100-yard games over the first six weeks. But then he never had one again over the rest of the season. Diggs' yards per route run dropped from 2.8 in 2022 to 2.2 in 2023. And his advanced metrics took a dive: His receiver tracking metrics overall score -- which was between 72 and 91 every season from 2017-2022 -- dropped to 52.
The aforementioned areas of concern in Diggs' numbers and his age are why this is not necessarily a home run for Houston. There are real questions about what caliber of player Diggs is going forward, and the draft capital exchanged wasn't trivial -- though getting back two late-round picks takes a little sting out of it.
Meanwhile, the Texans are free to address the draft with a"best player available" mentality with its first choice at No. 42 overall. Defensive tackle would be the team's top need, but after an active free agency period and now this blockbuster trade, they are sitting in great shape overall.
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