The Western media’s focus on the escape of foreign nationals from Sudan – to the exclusion of everything else – is obscuring the calamity facing 45 million Sudanese still trying to survive in their country 📧 Read Patrick Cockburn's latest newsletter:
Outside powers will exert increasing influence over the conflict because maintaining thousands of soldiers in the field is expensive and fresh supplies of military equipment and, above all else, ammunition are essential. This will give Saudi Arabia, US, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya and even the UK greater influence over the course of the war, but the Sudanese warlords are unlikely to become obedient proxies.
The popular revolt that began in 2011 after a street seller in Tunisia set himself on fire in a protest against injustice spread to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain.But 12 years on everyone of these countries is ruled by an even nastier regime than before the protests – and three have been ripped apart by civil war.
Western powers were keen to see the overthrow of traditionally hostile regimes in Libya and Syria, but not of a friendly ally in Bahrain. The protesters themselves knew what they were against, but not what they were for and – crucially – failed to gain control of the army and the media in Egypt. One day, they may get a second chance but it will be a long time coming and, when revolt does come, will be very bloody.
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