With massive favorites on unique card, sportsbooks 'going to need at least one upset to break up the chalky parlays.”
With massive favorites on unique card, sportsbooks "going to need at least one upset to break up the chalky parlays. ”UFC Freedom 250 is one of the most unique and hyped events the mixed martial arts company has ever produced, but will the White House’s South Lawn venue draw major betting action with its shortened fight card filled with heavy favorites?
Justin Gaethje is a very popular underdog. Ilia Topuria is a massive -500 favorite over Justin Gaethje in the main event, a lightweight title fight. Alex Pereira versus Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title is much closer to even, but four of the other five fights have a favorite of -300 or higher, including Diego Lopes, Bo Nickal, and star “Sugar” Sean O’Malley.
“I'd imagine this card will outperform almost every numbered card this year by a considerable amount, outside of the McGregor International Fight Week card,” said Brandon Yaeger, Caesars Sportsbook’s lead combat sports trader said on Friday. “The big names on this card, even with some heavy favorite prices, should still draw significant interest. “Of course, an Alex Pereira title fight with a chance to make history at a pick'em price tag should get a ton of handle by itself.
The only question is how much a seven-fight card compared to the typical 11-13 fight card will change the betting action. ” Bettors and sportsbooks will have to wait an extra day to find that out as well, with Freedom 250 scheduled for Sunday, not the UFC’s typical Saturday night fights.
“I have pretty high expectations for this fight card,” Yaeger said. “There are some obvious unknowns with the event taking place on a Sunday, but that means they're not competing with the NBA Finals for attention. I think the names on the card are very quality and fan favorites, but the odds on some of the fights make it hard to really get a ton of betting action early outside of parlay action.
”“UFC Freedom 250 has some massive favorites on paper, so the book is going to need at least one upset to break up the chalky parlays,” BetMGM trading manager Alex Rella said.
“Looking at the main event, Justin Gaethje is the most popular underdog of the night, but Topuria is looking to KO a fourth legend in a row. The co-main event is currently a pick 'em, but the public is firmly behind Alex Pereira, and I expect that gap to widen even more.
” BetMGM will be looking for a favorite in the final match as Gaethje at +400 is the most-bet fighter by tickets and handle on the entire Freedom 250 card. Pereira is second at -115. DraftKings reported that bettors are split on the main event, with Gaethje getting 76% of the tickets, but Topuria has seen 66% of the money and will be a part of many parlays.
Pereira is much more dominant at DraftKings with 83% of both the bets and handle heading into Sunday. A heavyweight bout between Josh Hokit and Derrick Lewis is the third most-bet fight of the card at BetMGM, which has seen 66% of the money come in on the underdog Lewis at +240. Michael Chandler is another underdog in his lightweight match against Mauricio Ruffy.
Chandler is getting 92% of the wagers at BetMGM and 85% at DraftKings, where the handle is much closer to 50/50 than at BetMGM. of +600, followed by Steve Garcia by decision/technical decision against Lopes. O’Malley, who is -350 on the moneyline against Aiemann Zahabi, has the fifth most-bet prop of KO/TKO or DQ at +175. Brad has been covering sports betting and iGaming industry news for Covers since 2023.
He writes about a wide range of topics, including sportsbook insights, proposed legislation, regulator decision-making, state revenue reports, and online sports betting launches. Brad reported heavily on North Carolina’s legal push for and creation of online sportsbooks, appearing on numerous Tar Heel State radio and TV news shows for his insights. Before joining Covers, Brad spent over 15 years as a reporter and editor, covering college sports for newspapers and websites while also hosting a radio show for seven years.
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