Lack of water is shrinking production in a region responsible for a quarter of the world’s output, which is having an impact on prices of tomato-based products.
Gains in tomato sauce and ketchup are outpacing the rise in U.S. food inflation, which is at its highest in 43 years, with drought and higher agricultural inputs to blame. With California climate change forecasts calling for hotter and drier conditions, the outlook for farmers is uncertain.
“Yields are way off this year,” Blankenship said in an interview. “Coupled with drought, we’ve had high temperatures and that in itself creates an issue where the tomatoes are so hot that they just don’t size properly — so you have a lot of tomatoes on a plant, but they are smaller.” The water woes have led to crop shifting as growers try to gauge what commodity will bring the biggest returns. Bruce Rominger, a fifth-generation farmer, slashed rice sowing by 90% to make room for tomatoes. He hopes to turn a profit on the 800 acres of tomatoes he began harvesting in July—though it’s a gamble.
The California crop has been below the recent production peak of 14.4 million tons in 2015 for the past six years, and 2022 is shaping up to continue the trend, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The industry expects this year’s harvest to fall below the USDA’s 11.7 million tons estimate.
Such pressures are being reflected in Ingomar’s processed products. Tomato paste prices for clients of the company, which sells to some of the largest U.S. food brands, are up as much as 80% from a year ago. With inventories dropping to critically low levels, though, supply isn’t available for everyone.
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