Opinion: Southern California has nation’s key House races
Whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives following next year’s elections will seemingly come down to Southern California, as whichever party outperforms here will have an inside track at securing a majority.
Of the 10 districts comprising Orange and San Diego counties, seven are currently held by Democrats, and three by Republicans, itself an improvement for the GOP, which controlled just one of these seats at the recent peak of Democratic dominance in 2018. Hudson specifically referred to the 47th district — due to be an open seat following Rep. Katie Porter’s decision to run to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein — as probably the GOP’s “best pickup opportunity in the country” given Republican Scott Baugh’s strong performance in 2022, losing to Porter by just 4 points , despite Porter outspending Baugh $28 million to $3 million.
Republicans are also eyeing the 49th district, where incumbent Democrat Rep. Mike Levin needed a last-minute boost from President Biden in 2022 to help fend off Republican challenger Brian Maryott, another traditional Republican who is running on a fiscally conservative, pro-growth platform. For their part, Democrats are focused on the two Southern California districts that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are represented by Republicans in the House — the 40th and 45th districts.
More interesting will be the 45th District, which Democrats have labeled a top target in 2024. Incumbent Michelle Steel is a member of the Freedom Caucus and has taken anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ positions, which may hurt her in a district that Cook Political Report rates as D+2 but “leaning Republican.”
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