Southern California is set for its first significant rainfall of the winter, offering much-needed relief from the region's persistent fire threat. However, concerns remain about the potential for a return to dry conditions and heightened wildfire risk.
With red flag fire weather warnings finally set to end Friday morning, Southern California is braced for its first real rains of the winter, offering some much-needed relief in the region's seemingly relentless battle against wildfires. However, there are concerns that this weekend's rainfall might provide only temporary respite. The possibility of a subsequent dry spell looms, raising serious questions about the potential for dangerous fire weather to return sooner than anticipated.
One of the primary challenges is the Santa Ana wind season, which can persist until February and March. A single weekend of moderate rainfall would be insufficient to counter weeks of dry winds and hot weather if they materialize. Southern California is currently experiencing a historically dry start to winter, shattering records dating back to the late 19th century. The region is rapidly running out of time to alleviate the severe rainfall deficit before the winter rainy season concludes. 'We've never witnessed this level of dryness this deep into a winter,' stated Alex Tardy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in San Diego, which also covers Orange County and the Inland Empire. 'This has been exceptionally extreme for Southern California.' The region has been trapped in a punishing weather pattern since October, with not a single significant storm passing through. This trend intensified in January, with the storm track blocked from 'not just Southern California, but the entire West Coast—from Seattle southward,' according to Tardy. The lack of rain coincided with seven separate Santa Ana wind events impacting Southern California in January alone, a dangerous combination as the dry air and vegetation increase the risk of wildfires. This has resulted in a total of 15 Santa Ana wind events since November. 'The Santa Ana winds have significantly depleted the moisture from the atmosphere,' Tardy explained. 'There is no marine layer because it has been blown out to sea. The desert conditions have reached the coast.' Following this weekend's rainfall, long-term forecasts suggest a return to a dry pattern for Southern California. It marks the driest start to the water year, which began on October 1st, on record for locations like San Diego, Orange County, the Inland Empire, Los Angeles International Airport, UCLA, Van Nuys, Woodland Hills, and Camarillo. For other areas, it's the second-driest start to the water year, including downtown Los Angeles, which has received only 0.16 of an inch of rain since October 1st. This represents a mere 2.5% of the average rainfall of 6.38 inches received by this point in the season. The annual average rainfall for downtown L.A. is 14.25 inches. This weekend's rains are anticipated to provide a much-needed break from the last few weeks of relentless fire weather. Red flag warnings have been in effect for parts of Southern California for 15 out of the last 18 days, set to expire at 10 a.m. Friday. This week witnessed the emergence of several new, threatening wildfires across Southern California, including the Hughes fire, which has scorched over 10,000 acres since Wednesday near Castaic Lake, just north of Santa Clarita. By late Thursday, the Hughes fire was 36% contained. The 23,400-acre Palisades fire was 75% contained, and the 14,000-acre Eaton fire, 95% contained.The rains are projected to end a record streak of minimal rainfall for downtown Los Angeles, which has not experienced more than one-tenth of an inch of rain on a calendar day since 0.13 of an inch fell on May 5. As of Friday, it has been 264 days since downtown L.A. received one-tenth of an inch of rain or more. This sets a new record for downtown—the previous mark was 253 consecutive days, from February 25, 2008, to November 3, 2008. Currently, forecasters expect widespread rain this weekend. Between Saturday and Monday, downtown L.A., Long Beach, and Santa Clarita could receive three-fifths of an inch of rain, while Canoga Park and Fillmore could get more than a half-inch, and Thousand Oaks, two-fifths of an inch. San Diego, Anaheim, Irvine, San Clemente, Riverside, and Lake Elsinore could see 0.7 to 1 inch of rain. San Bernardino, Ontario, Temecula, Oceanside, Escondido, and Mira Mesa could receive 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. However, this storm system is complex to forecast, stated meteorologist Ryan Kittell of the weather service's Oxnard office, which issues forecasts for Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties. This storm is driven by a low-pressure system moving south from Canada, with current projections placing the low-pressure system directly over the Southern California coast.
Southern California Rainfall Wildfires Santa Ana Winds Drought Weather Forecast
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