NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - If the rate of growth in coronavirus cases in the New York metro area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.. Read more at straitstimes.com.
NEW YORK - If the rate of growth in coronavirus cases in the New York metro area continues, it will suffer a more severe outbreak than those experienced in Wuhan, China, or the Lombardy region of Italy.
In the early stages of an outbreak, the population size doesn't matter - one infected person will probably infect a few people, whether that person lives in a metropolitan area of 100,000 or one of 10 million. But as an epidemic progresses, the number of cases per capita can provide a good measure of the prevalence of coronavirus in a community.
The number of confirmed cases is an imperfect measure of what we really care about: the prevalence of the virus in the population, and therefore - if it is early in the epidemic - how many people are sick or may be contagious. The limited availability of testing in some places means that many people with coronavirus won't be counted among the confirmed cases.
Because patients who die of Covid-19 tend to be sick for weeks first, counting deaths may also understate the current size of the outbreak in a given place if it is growing quickly.
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