The UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies document shows it thinks opening the economy only to close it again will reduce public trust
Shuttered shops in Croydon, UK on Monday, May 4 2020. Picture: BLOOMBERG/JASON ALDEN
The suggestion is made in a cache of documents released on Tuesday after Prime Minister Boris Johnson came under pressure to reveal the workings of the secretive SAGE committee, which has shaped his response to the pandemic. On February 4, SAGE estimated the true scale of the outbreak in China to be 10 times higher than officials were confirming at the time.
A paper presented at a meeting on March 23 predicted London’s hospital ICUs would be overwhelmed within days, even with the lockdown, and warned that infections were spreading faster than expected. Until Monday, when the government released the names of 50 scientists, the membership of SAGE was largely secret. Two members have declined to allow their identities to be made public.
“If strict restrictions are retained for months then abruptly eased and people are told it is safe to resume social contact, they will expect this to mean that the risk of infection has ceased or significantly reduced,” they wrote. “If there is then an increase in infection rates that necessitates a re-introduction of restrictions, this is likely to be seen as a serious failure of policy and trust in public health advice will be lost.
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