BRUSSELS -- How Iran will respond to the U.S. assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani remains a matter of speculation, but one outcome seems almost certain: the end of Europe's long effort to keep the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal alive.In interviews Friday, European analysts envisioned a number
BRUSSELS — How Iran will respond to the U.S. assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani remains a matter of speculation, but one outcome seems almost certain: the end of Europe’s long effort to keep the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal alive.
President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the treaty in May 2018, calling it “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made,” and imposed punitive new sanctions as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign. “This would give Europeans even less breathing room to keep the JCPOA alive until November 2020,” when the world would know whether Trump is reelected, Geranmayeh said. “It will be very difficult for the Europeans to hold it together.”
Carl Bildt, the former prime minister of Sweden, said that Europe had been trying to prevent war between Iran and the United States for a decade but that the scope for salvaging the nuclear accord now “is very small, and the scope for diplomacy is extremely limited.” For François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst, the killing of Soleimani creates great uncertainty and could even produce a push for the general’s Revolutionary Guard to take over the Iranian government. “Iran will react,” he said. “But will this trigger new dynamics in the Iranian government?”
The recently departed chief of the EU’s foreign and security policy, Federica Mogherini, called the killing of Soleimani “an extremely dangerous escalation” in the Middle East. But she said on Twitter that she hoped “some of the diplomatic achievements of the past will be preserved.
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