The solar industry is a game of shaving pennies. Expert Jenya Meydbray catalogues both the history of innovation and a host of new solar advances coming down the pike that will continue to drive costs lower.
With the federal Investment Tax Credit phasing out, it’s a good time to take stock of the solar industry - both taking a look at where it has come from and where it is headed, especially in terms of innovation and evolving technology.
PVEL evaluates panels by applying sophisticated reliability and performance-testing programs to ensure the panels will perform as promised and investors can feel confident ponying up their cash. It’s no small challenge, given that the cell and panel technology continues to evolve. And the industry has already come a long way since Meydbray started.
Then there is the conversion efficiency of the cell itself – how effectively it converts photons into a useful stream of electrons. This is important, since with higher efficiencies you get more watts out of the same rectangle of glass, the same frame, inverter, and labor. Since 2010, he notes, the absolute efficiency of the crystal silicon solar panel has gone up about .5% per year and “that’s pretty consistent. That’s huge. And it’s fundamental to continued cost reduction.
With PERC, Meydbray says, 23% cell efficiencies have been achieved, with average efficiencies at around 21.5% in the tens gigawatts of cells now being produced annually. He believes there is some efficiency runway left with PERC, but 23.5 % is probably the maximum that can be squeezed out. Meydbray also comments that the distinction between mono and polysilicon cells is not as critical as it used to be. “Within these cell technologies, you can use multi or mono cells.
In addition, there is the issue of the mismatch between bifacial modules on edge of the system versus those in the middle that see less light on the backside. The modules are connected strings in parallel, feeding into a combiner box and inverter. Since they are in a series, they require the same current. Thus if the modules on the edge see more light than those in the middle, there is greater potential for mismatched losses.
Meydbray cautions that with every incremental incremental design change “there are implications that are often overlooked until you have failure” or at least significant challenges. For example, if one makes the cells bigger, without changing the number of cells in the panel, then the panel is no longer backwards-compatible. This means that a new and slightly larger panel cannot be retrofitted into an existing field if older panels malfunction.
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