Rethink Energy expects solar installation growth to hit 700 GW by 2025, and perhaps even higher depending on grid transmission upgrades.
dropped immensely in recent years, then bounced up as supply couldn’t keep up with demand, and seem to be dropping again a bit as production capacity is increased. “Since 2022 the price of polysilicon has halved, indicating the expected catchup of supply to demand. But then the price leaped back up by 50%, so to 75% of the peak 2022 price, a volatility caused in part by China’s Spring Festival.
Andries posits a 12-month delay between manufacture and installation. Of course, this timeframe will vary depending on many factors — shipping time, incentives, security concerns, etc. “The limiting factors that define the maximum possible scale of solar installations are profitability, workforce, and grid connection, with a fourth limit being accompanying energy storage. Land availability exists, but rooftop availability is not yet a limiting factor at the national level, excepting perhaps in Singapore.”
“Vietnam’s population is 100 million, and its GDP per capita was $12,200 in 2021, while the global average was $18,600. Per capita electricity consumption is one-third of the global average, but the rate of growth is four times the global average. So Vietnam should rate above its population for capacity additions — so let’s multiply by 40, not by the 80 suggested to get from Vietnamese population to global population.
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