The National Federation of Independent Business' (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index surged to a six-year high, driven by anticipation of President-elect Trump's return and pro-business policies.
America's small business owners are experiencing a surge in optimism, fueled by the anticipation of President-elect Trump 's return to the White House. The National Federation of Independent Business' ( NFIB ) latest Small Business Optimism Index soared 3.4 points to 105.1 in December, reaching its highest level since October 2018. This marks the second consecutive month above the 50-year average, following a 2.5-year streak that ended in November coinciding with Trump 's victory.
Simultaneously, the NFIB's Uncertainty Index plummeted 12 points last month, settling at 86. 'Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election,' asserted NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Small business owners feel more certain and hopeful about the economic agenda of the new administration.' Dunkelberg further elaborated, 'Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation, and positive business conditions have intensified in anticipation of pro-business policies and legislation in the new year.' This survey emerges as the outgoing Biden-Harris administration champions its economic policies, highlighting growth and low unemployment figures. However, the persistent high inflation and burdensome regulations of the past four years deeply impacted Main Street businesses. Trump has pledged to streamline regulations, mirroring his approach during his first term, and to make his signature tax cuts permanent upon his return to the Oval Office. In the NFIB's latest survey, the net percentage of owners anticipating an economic upswing surged 16 points from November to a seasonally adjusted 52%, the highest since the fourth quarter of 1983. The proportion of small business owners who believe it's an opportune time to expand their operations also climbed, increasing six points to a seasonally adjusted 20%, the highest reading since February 2020. Additionally, the net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose eight points to a net 22%, reaching the highest point since January 2020. Inflation persists as the most pressing concern for small business owners, according to the December survey, with 20% of respondents citing it as their primary challenge. However, finding qualified labor is a close second, with 19% identifying it as their most significant obstacle
SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM TRUMP ECONOMY NFIB
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