Sizing the Massive Spot Bitcoin ETF Opportunity

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Sizing the Massive Spot Bitcoin ETF Opportunity
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Matt Kunke is a research analyst for GSR, where he conducts research to demonstrate thought leadership externally as well as support firm products and services.

, there has long been one glaring hole, the holy grail of access if you will: a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF.

A U.S. spot bitcoin ETF is a massive opportunity because of the sheer size of the U.S. capital markets. In fact, SIFMA estimates that the U.S. accounts for a full 40% of total global fixed income assets and equity market cap. Moreover, ETFs in the U.S. represent a greater percentage of total assets than in other jurisdictions, coming in at 7% of equity and fixed income assets versus 4% in Europe and 2% in Asia-Pacific.

Put simply, a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF gives bitcoin legitimacy, eliminating regulatory uncertainty , giving credence to crypto as an asset class, and ensuring strong oversight and investor protections, all in a convenient and familiar vehicle. Add in a potential offering from the likes of BlackRock, with its sterling reputation among advisors and distribution to nearly every major wealth platform, and it becomes easy to see why investment managers and advisors may suddenly take the leap.

To boot , bitcoin will likely see a larger impact on price for each net new investment dollar it accrues than did gold, as bitcoin’s market cap is just 27% that of gold in 2004. A spot ETF transformed the gold market, and it just may do the same for bitcoin.To be sure, there is still significant uncertainty around ultimate approval, not to mention the AUM that spot ETF products may garner, and the resulting impact on price.

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