As of last week, the economy was operating at about 76% of where it was before the pandemic, the Back-to-Normal Index created by CNNBusiness and Moody's Analytics estimates. Now, economic recovery could be heading in the wrong direction.
Six months. It may feel like an eternity, but that's how long it's been since states started enacting stay-at-home orders.
We now know those actions were at least partially successful in slowing the spread of Covid-19. They also triggered an economic downturn deeper than any recession on record since at least the Great Depression. Now, in many places, businesses, schools and colleges are reopening, but life is not entirely back to normal. Students are learning through hybrid models, alternating between classes in person and virtually on Zoom. Masks are still required in public in most states.
An economy operating that far below"normal" translates into hardship for millions of Americans and businesses.Six months into the crisis, weekly claims for unemployment benefits are still about four times higher than they were before the pandemic. At that level, they also remain higher than any other period prior to the pandemic, in records going back to 1967. The travel, leisure and hospitality industries have been hit particularly hard.
Finally, one last bright spot: e-commerce. Retail sales, as tracked by the Commerce Department, have already surpassed their pre-pandemic level. But that V-like recovery has been driven mostly by one category: nonstore retailers, which includes online shopping. The services industry and brick-and-mortar retailers — particularly clothing stores — are still operating well below their pre-pandemic levels, and many are expected to shutter.
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