The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history appears to be nearing an end, but not without leaving a mark on an already-struggling economy.
, and President Donald Trump 's tariffs, which have caused uncertainty for many businesses. Still, few economists foresee a recession. About 650,000 federal workers didn't work during the shutdown, which will likely boost the unemployment rate by about 0.
4 percentage points in October, or to 4.7% from 4.3% in August, when the last report was released. Those workers would all then be counted as employed once the government reopens.All told, federal workers will have missed about $16 billion in wages by mid-November, the CBO estimates. That has meant less spending at stores, restaurants, and likely reduced holiday travel. Large purchases will probably be postponed, slowing the broader economy. Trump had threatened during the shutdown to not provide back pay but the deal struck in Congress would replace those lost wages once the government reopens., where the unemployment rate was already 6% before the shutdown, after Trump's cuts to the federal workforce this spring caused job losses. While the Washington, D.C. area — including the nearby suburbs in Virginia and Maryland — have the highest concentration of federal workers, most live and work outside of the nation's capital. Federal workers make up about 5.5% of Maryland's workforce, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. But they also comprise 2.9% of New Mexico's workers, 2.6% of Oklahoma's, and 3.8% of Alaska's. Then there are the federal contractors. Bernard Yaros, an economist at Oxford Economics, estimates they could total as many as 5.2 million, and they are not guaranteed back pay once the shutdown ends.Airlines scrapped more than 2,000 flights by Monday evening after canceling 5,500 since Friday on orders from the Federal Aviation Administration, which is seeking to reduce the burden on overworked air traffic controllers, who have now missed two paychecks. Even before the flight cancellations, Tourism Economics, an economic consulting firm, estimated that the shutdown would reduce travel spending by $63 million a day, which means a six-week standoff would cost the travel industry $2.6 billion. The canceled flights also mean less business for hotels, restaurants, and taxi drivers. And federal employees have already pulled the plug on upcoming trips, according to Tourism Economics, which may not be able to be rescheduled even when the government does reopen.The shutdown has worsened Americans' outlook on the broader economy. Declining consumer sentiment can over time reduce spending and slow growth, though in recent years Americans have kept shopping even when their outlooks turned grim.survey by the University of Michigan , reported Friday, with pessimism over personal finances and anticipated business conditions weighing on Americans. The November survey showed the index of consumer sentiment at 50.4, down a startling 6.2% from last month and a plunge of nearly 30% from a year ago.While the shutdown hasn't cut off all federal government spending, it has reduced purchases of equipment and has cut off the issuance of new contracts. Yaros estimates that about $800 million in new contracts were at risk of not being awarded each day of the shutdown. “The federal award spigot has all but turned off at the Department of Defense, NASA, and the Department of Homeland Security,” Yaros wrote.The shutdown delayed the payment of $8 billion in monthly SNAP food aid to 42 million recipients in November, creating a significant financial disruption for many households that likely reduced spending. Some states haveThe deal currently under consideration in Congress to reopen the government includes full funding of SNAP benefits.on unemployment, inflation, and retail spending that the Federal Reserve depends on to monitor the economy's health. Even as the government reopens, some of that data will still be delayed. As a result, the Fed may not deliver a third interest rate cut at its December meeting, which was widely expected before the shutdown.news conferencePowell said the Fed's interest-rate setting committee is deeply divided over whether to reduce its key rate, partly because the economy's health is unusually cloudy right now. The government hasand the October inflation data, scheduled to be published Thursday, will likely never be issued. Powell said a rate cut in December was not a “foregone conclusion” and added that the lack of data could contribute to a decision by the Fed to skip a rate cut at its next meeting December 9-10. Fewer rate cuts could discourage borrowing and spending and weigh on the economy in the coming months. Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.Here are some tips to avoid fire safety hazards when dealing with cold weather1:02Fall into fun with all the local Northeast Florida events from Nov. 10 - Nov. 16Jacksonville father of six turns to food pantries and extra work amid SNAP benefit haltRichard's Swing Makeover Pt. 9: Using a jig to align the hand-forged hardwareCommunity mourns beloved stunt pilot after deadly plane crashGov. DeSantis makes Atlantic red snapper announcementEverything you need to know to prepare for the upcoming cold snap▶Flight cancellations at Jacksonville International AirportWeather Whiplash: Plummeting temps after 80-degree weekend. Here's what you need to knowAftermath of stunt plane crash at Keystone Airport that left St. Augustine man deadClay County teen talks about what inspired him to give support dogs to othersAriel tries the 'Reese's Coco Loco' at the Jacksonville FairSwing Makeover Pt. 8: Break out the power tools; it's time to prep the hardware for paintHow JAX is being affected by flight delays caused by FAA reduction because of shutdownCouncilman to request $2M in emergency funding to help those impacted by SNAP benefits disruptionsCouncilman to request $2M in emergency funding to help those impacted by SNAP benefits disruptionsWarm start to the weekend, cold snap arrives early next weekAn aerial look at Riverfront Plaza as Phase 1 nears completionBethel Church opening 'SNAP store' Monday to after receiving outpour of community donations0:39The Jacksonville Fair is officially underway!What you need to know as FAA cuts flights at 40 airports amid government shutdownWoman who found emaciated Great Dane in Jacksonville puts up $5K, urges community to come forwardWoman who found emaciated Great Dane in Jacksonville puts up $5K, urges community to come forward
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