How the expectation of a vaccine influences optimal lockdown measures IIASAVienna PLOSONE
Lockdown intensity over time, Lockdown intensity along duration, Research effort over time, Probability thatThe high speed of the vaccination campaign has a strong effect on the lockdown intensity at the time of the vaccination approval, as at that very instant it is optimal to immediately reduce the lockdown measures.
The drastic continuous decrease of the lockdown after the vaccine approval in Stage 2 gets obvious in panel , showing the lockdown intensity along the duration. As in Scenario 1, the blue line corresponds to the lockdown over time if the vaccine is approved within three months, the red one for approval within six months, and the green one for approval within nine months.
Panel illustrates the research boost in Stage 1. Compared to Scenario 1, it is now at the maximum for almost one year . This is a clear consequence of a cost-benefit analysis of the corresponding effects. In Scenario 1 the population is vaccinated within about 10 months, which means that also after the R&D breakthrough considerably high lockdown costs arise.
The probability to remain in Stage 1 and the probability density for the vaccine approval ) are changed according to the optimal path of the research efforts of panel . The black line is lower than that of Scenario 1, while the colored one is higher. The susceptibles ) and infected ) complete the picture for this scenario. Unsurprisingly, the susceptible compartment goes to zero within one month. The speed of the vaccination campaign implies that the pandemic will be ended soon after the vaccine approval. Therefore the government can afford higher infection numbers for a short time interval, which are due to the downward jump and the sharp decrease of the lockdown intensity.
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