The West must strongly deter — without foreclosing a future reconciliation between Taipei and Beijing.
An outdoor screen in Beijing shows a news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan on May 23. Kevin Rudd is Australia’s ambassador to the United States and was previously prime minister and foreign minister. This is an edited extract of a speech to be delivered Thursday at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. The speech is a personal reflection in his capacity as a China scholar and not as an official representative of the Australian government.
This, in turn, is based on Beijing’s insistence that any political dialogue between Taiwan and the mainland must be based on the “1992 Consensus” — an ambiguous arrangement broadly based on the principle of “one China,” albeit with differing interpretations of what that means to each side. Beijing might well be in the process of concluding that Taiwan thinking of itself as de facto autonomous, with the international community on much the same page, will become further entrenched — and irreversible. As time begins to run out , we will begin to see a change in Chinese strategy toward the “Taiwan problem.
And there is no inconsistency between China pursuing these two approaches in tandem. China’s political strategy for unification with Taiwan has always had a fundamental military component. Indeed, these two approaches are entirely compatible if their cumulative effect is to reduce Taipei’s deterrence and war fighting capabilities, as well as its political, social and economic resilience.Deterring China from launching military action against Taiwan is the cornerstone of a U.S.
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