Seeing Africa through the eyes of a ‘possibilist’

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Seeing Africa through the eyes of a ‘possibilist’
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Opinion | Seeing Africa through the eyes of a ‘possibilist’, writes Abu Addae

Few topics better divide people into two warring camps of optimists and pessimists than the state of Africa’s development. The optimists argue for the “Africa Rising” narrative, citing some well-publicised feat of technological entrepreneurship or some bold new initiative, while the pessimists point to the poverty, rampant corruption and poor infrastructure the continent is so well known for.

Africa’s population is expected to be 2.5-billion by 2050, reaching 4-billion by the end of the century, according to the UN. Worryingly, the number of people living in extreme poverty actually increased in Africa between 2000 and 2010, according to the World Bank. This state of affairs seems to make the case for pessimism and it is tempting to either extrapolate this dismal trend into the future or to deny it as a blip and stick with optimism.

These categories and research at LifeCheq puts a level 4 middle-income lifestyle at about $1,000 a month, something only about 16-million Africans will enjoy in 2020, about 1.25% of the population. The size of this segment globally is around 14% of the population. If current trends continue we will, even optimistically, have a level 4 segment of just 3% of the population by 2050. Hence the line of expectation that is built into mindsets about the continent and its future.

New, high-growth markets create the possibility of high-income growth as the new jobs require higher productivity from workers, and rewards them with higher wages. Possibly the most well-known example of this phenomenon is Ford’s $5 a day wage for assembly line workers in 1914, turning them from low-level labourers earning $2.34 a day to core target customers for the very Model T cars they were manufacturing.

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