Human-caused global warming, natural climatevariability in vicious cycle NatureComms
). The linear trend of ROMS main run SLA is 6.50 ± 1.16 mm/yr, which is within the uncertainty range of satellite SLA trend of 5.59 ± 0.99 mm/yr for the 1993–2017 period. The ORAS4 reanalysis data – which assimilate satellite SLA – underestimates the sea level rise trend, as does HYCOM, with both exceeding the uncertainty range of satellite data.
Despite errors in simulating the sea level rise trend in HYCOM and ORAS4 reanalysis, the increased occurrence of HEX events during 2010–2017 is consistent in all datasets. Since ROMS applies open boundary conditions with 3hourly forcing fields, it contains global sea level rise and storm surge signals like the tide gauge data. This is probably why the ROMS SLAs are somewhat larger than satellite data, as the tide gauge observation .
After removing the 1993–2017 trend, the standard deviation of satellite SLA is 0.12 m, compared to the 0.13 m in ORAS4, 0.15 m ROMS, and 0.13 m in HYCOM. All of them are within the 0.04 m difference between tide gauge and satellite data , suggesting that the sea level variability magnitudes in both reanalysis data and model simulations fall in the uncertainty range of observations.
The time-evolution of HEX strength, represented by the 90th percentile of SLAs with an 8year sliding window, is well simulated by ROMS compared to satellite data for their overlapping period (Fig.
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