San Jose State's win over Kennesaw State was fool's gold, and Washington State's win over Washington is a diamond in the rough. Douglas Farmer is going against the market movement for his best bet in this one and backing the Cougars.
San Jose State's win over Kennesaw State was fool's gold, and Washington State's win over Washington is a diamond in the rough. Douglas Farmer is going against the market movement for his best bet in this one and backing the Cougars.
San Jose State meets Washington State on Friday night in a battle of 3-0 teams. Both teams got to this point in different fashions with the Spartans leaning on their defense, while the Cougars offense has been highly efficient. Given the home-field advantage, my San Jose State vs. Washington State predictions believe offense will dictate the game, thus putting the Spartans behind the eightball. Since when is beating Kennesaw State worth more than a 1.5-point bump in power rankings? All due respect to the Owls, moving up to the FBS warrants that acknowledgement, but they are one of the absolute worst teams in the top tier of college football. The Owls lack depth, particularly defensively, and their offensive line is still trying to figure out how to transition to a zone-read designed offense from a triple-option approach. Frankly, that half measure was always doomed to fail.beat Kennesaw State 31-10 last week. The final touchdown came with just three minutes left on a short field. Let’s ignore that for predictive measures. The penultimate touchdown came on a short field via an explosive pass. That should also be somewhat discounted against quality competition.upsetting Washington knocked their rating down by 0.1 points. There is some logic to that, with the net success rate aligning more closely to a field-goal loss than a five-point win, roughly speaking. A couple of explosive rushes to turn quality possessions into touchdowns while the Huskies struggled in that exact regard provided the difference. But those items are replicable, and they do not need to simply face the worst team not named Kent State to be replicated. Washington State has held opponents to just 2.09 points per quality drive this season, No. 15 in the country. And the Cougars generate explosive runs often enough to enjoy the No. 36 rushing attack in terms of expected points added per rush despite succeeding only 38.2% of rush attempts — Looking at the defensive version of those rushing splits, Washington State also limits explosive runs against. To sum all that up, this spread moved in some part because San Jose State ran up the score on Kennesaw State via the exact means that Washington State should stymie, all while the Cougars’ greatest strength should be a Spartans’ concern. The hook and the juice are less than ideal, but they do not worry enough to prevent this best bet on the distinctly better team.San Jose State has relied on a middling passing game and explosive runs to put up points this season. Still, the Spartans regularly fail where it matters most, scoring just 2.44 points per quality possession — No. 104 in the country. Worse yet, San Jose State enjoys a quality possession on only 21.4% of its drives. When your only two FBS games have come against Air Force and Kennesaw State, those kinds of rates are all too telling. Washington State prevents most any explosive play while shutting opponents down where it matters most with that 2.09 points per quality possession this season. There is little reason to think the Spartans will score with any reliability.has four rushing touchdowns this season, including three in two games against Power Four competition. If Washington State finds itself inside the 10-yard line multiple times, there is reason to think Mateer will get multiple shots at scoring.San Jose State vs Washington State live oddsThis spread opened at Circa Sports with Washington State reasonably favored by 13 points. When it hit the broader market, it spiked to -14.5 before falling to -13.5 on Monday and then -11.5 on Tuesday. Do not read into that too much as doubt in the Cougars. It more represents appropriate buyback after too much faith was put into that win against Washington. The total also saw some wild movement, opening at 52.5 and climbing to 55.5 when it hit the broader market. By Tuesday, it peaked at 58.5 only to settle at 55.5. That total rising while the spread fell is likely an argument for explosive plays in this game in general.San Jose State vs Washington State latest injuries: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Sep 20, 2024Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
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