While many brokers say they're optimistic about a potential turnaround in 2020, real estate experts say they expect a continued — though perhaps slower — decline this year as tax pressures and rising inventory keep buyers on the sidelines.
"I think we'll see more of the same," said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. "The problem with saying that 2020 will mark the bottom is that it suggests it will go up after that. And I think we still have another couple of years of moving sideways.
Sales of apartments priced at $5 million or more plunged 38% in the quarter and there is now a two-year supply of luxury apartments on the market. Beyond the official inventory, brokers say there is a mountain of "shadow inventory" — or apartments that aren't officially listed but are waiting for market conditions to improve and sales to clear before they list.
According to Halstead Development Marketing, there is a now a six-year supply of new development apartments. The biggest glut is on "Billionaire's Row" — the string of super-towers along 57Halstead said that the dollar value of closings in the fourth quarter was down 27% from last year.
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