Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves North Carolina to ‘toss-up’

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from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” on Tuesday. The move comes after two major pollsters found Harris leading over former President-Siena College and the Cook Political Report show Harris with a 2% and 1% lead in the state, respectively, but three other recent polls have shown Trump leading Harris, making the

The group’s shift of North Carolina to “toss-up” marks the second time this month they have moved a state from the Republican column to a “toss-up,” with the other state being Georgia. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also said North Carolina has the best chance of being the “reddest” among the key swing states.

Democrats have had their sights set on North Carolina for much of the 2024 presidential race after it was the closest state to vote for Trump over President Joe Biden in 2020. Since 1980, Democrats have only won North Carolina once in the presidential election, in 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama beat then-Sen. John McCain by less than half a percentage point.North Carolina joins six other states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — that have been rated as “toss-up” contests by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

The shift in Harris’s favor comes as she is set to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for president at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Thursday night. The convention will also have high-profile speakers on Tuesday and Wednesday night, including former President Barack Obama and Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz .

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