Economists expect the Sarb to wait until either January or March before cutting the repo rate.
South Africa’s economic growth is expected to pick up slightly next year due to better energy supply, a Reuters poll found, while slowing inflation might give consumers some respite although the bigger risk is it remains elevated. Gross domestic product is expected to expand 1.2% next year, better than a 1.1% expectation in a September poll and compared to a median estimate of 0.7% for this year. In 2025 it is forecast to grow 1.7%. Read all our GDP coverage here.
Rates are then expected to be cut by the same amount in May, the only policy meeting in the second quarter, and then again either in July or September to 7.50% before a brief pause into 2025. The repo rate is forecast to end 2025 at 7.00%. The Sarb’s negative real rates turned positive at the end of last year and look to remain so for the rest of the horizon.
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