A top strategist says the S&P 500 has predicted the election winner 87% of the time in nearly 100 years, but 'transformational' events pose a challenge for 2020 vote
The S&P 500 has correctly predicted the election winner 87% of the time for nearly a century, although four major events this year pose a greater challenge to the 2020 vote, a top strategist said in a BNY Mellon webcast on Thursday.
He said Democrats could end up hurting themselves if they choose to vote through mail-in ballots, as that dramatically increases chances of error and delays the process.The S&P 500 index has correctly predicted the winner of the US presidential election 87% of the time over the last almost-100 years, strategist Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners said at a BNY Mellon webcast on Thursday.
However, four "transformational" events in 2020 — the COVID-19 pandemic, an ensuing recession, mass protests against racial injustice, and a US presidential election — pose a great challenge to potential outcomes this year, he said. Clifton said the next two months would be the "wildest" ever in politics, and provided a 3-point framework to understand potential outcomes: When the COVID-19 caseload was rising, there was a referendum on Donald Trump. But since cases peaked, it has become more of a choice between Trump and Joe Biden.
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