Stocks Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, SPDR® S&P 500, S&P 500 Futures. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's latest article on Investing.com
Although the index has not dropped below the critical $4458 level … we must now be mindful that either the red W-iv to ideally $4300+/-25 is underway, or the blue W-B counter-trend rally has ended, and the index is working lower to $2700-2900. Please note the upside levels have been on our radar since October last year.
However, A-waves comprise a five-wave structure only a minority of times. Thus, a 5-3-5 correction is still possible but less likely. Nonetheless,"less likely" does not equate to"not going to happen," so we want to see the next higher degree 5-wave decline confirm the bearish count. But, with an initial five waves down, the Bears are now in charge regardless.
The index will now have to rally above $4443, without dropping below today’s low again, to give us an early indication the red W-ii/b is underway, with confirmation above $4490. If it stalls around $4425+/5 and then drops below today’s low, we should expect $4370-80 before the index can retry its multi-day “dead cat bounce”.
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