Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted coup is over, but it could still have far-reaching consequences for Putin’s government.
. He achieved notoriety as “The King of State Contracts” in the 2000s, enriching himself like other oligarchs with streams of cash from Putin’s regime.
Putin then sent Wagner into Syria, the Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, Libya, and a few other countries. And, when his attempt to seize all of Ukraine in 2022 failed and Russia forces got bogged down defending occupied territories, Putin again relied upon Wagner. There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s denunciations of the war, exposure of the lies that justified it and attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov resonated with already demoralized Russian troops.
Sensing his opportunity, Prigozhin launched his coup. There is little doubt that at least a layer of generals and intelligence services. But the Russian repressive forces, which could have easily crushed his force of 4,000 mercenaries, adopted a neutral stance, letting the coup start. Putin realized the weakness of his regime and feared an open confrontation. So, he opened negotiations through his Kremlin intermediaries as well as Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko with Prigozhin, who realized that he lacked support for a coup and sought out a deal to save himself and his business.
Prigozhin’s uprising shattered that image of Putin. Now, the elite see that Putin is weak, that he fled and that he was forced to cut a deal with one of his own gangsters. Thus, his hold on the elite has been fundamentally compromised.Putin’s regime has been profoundly shaken and. Let’s look at his key bases of support. First, the army.
He will also likely turn to greater repression inside Russia. Just like every authoritarian leader, Putin is extremely paranoid about threats to his regime and sees traitors lurking in every corner.
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