Russia’s and China’s ‘coercive signalling’ to US aircraft in international airspace is nothing new, but downing a craft is a worrying development
which crashed into the Black Sea on Tuesday, insisting the drone went down of its own accord. But the US allegations of dangerous flying and even dumping fuel on the Reaper to disrupt it are detailed – and the Russians have a long record of aggressive behaviour.study analysing dozens of close-shave incidents concluded it was a matter of policy, which Rand dubbed “coercive signalling”.
“Sometimes the coercive signal is something like this: the plane will come up to interrogate the target, shadow at a distance, with wings clean but increasingly with wings dirty as our bilateral relations have deteriorated, and it will leave,” Dara Massicot, one of the report’s authors,“Sometimes, usually after other methods were used, Russian signalling would shift to something unsafe and unprofessional to compel a change.
Tuesday’s incident is more serious because it led to a collision and a crash landing in the sea. It was quite possibly an error. The US European Command pointed to incompetence on the part of the Russian pilot. But Massicot said that in this case “a deliberate bump cannot be ruled out yet”. As the commandant of the US Marine Corps, Gen David Berger, said such scenarios such as the downing of this drone are some of the US military’s greatest worries because of the unpredictability of the chain of events they could trigger in their wake.
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