OPINION: Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving a strategic transformation of our world order
Former Intelligence Officer Rebekah Koffler says strategy wins wars, and the U.S. should plan and prepare to fight a war with Russia.On Tuesday, one Russian SU-27 fighter jet forced down aThis was the first highly consequential military encounter of the kind that could have resulted in a direct conflict between Russia and the U.
S. Even if Moscow and Washington manage to avoid such a catastrophic clash, their proxy war over Ukraine, which is in its second year, will transform the world in the long term, nevertheless. Here are top three strategic changes to watch.Permanent war in Europe All of the three parties to the war — Moscow, Kyiv and Washington — are incentivized to continue the bloodshed. Putin views the outcome of the war as existential. Russia, which has seen its buffer zone with NATO reduced to as little as 100 miles after the Baltic states joined NATO in 2004, has drawn a red line over Ukraine. Russia’s capacity and manpower outmatch Ukraine’s, enabling Putin to continue a war of attrition. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cannot back down either. His entire persona is wrapped up in the image of a wartime president and freedom fighter. Losing his status of international hero by capitulating to Putin would mean that Zelenskyy could no longer secure U.S. and European cash, on which his country is fully dependent for survival as Ukraine’s industrial capacity and agricultural base are destroyed. Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, attends the Victory Day military parade marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II in Moscow May 9, 2022. Washington views U.S. support for Ukraine as a cost-effective investment in militarily and economically weakening Russia, a primary U.S. adversary. Given the largely bipartisan support in Congress for funding Ukraine, some form of military assistance can be expected to flow to Kyiv. This will likely prevent Russia from securing a clear military victory but won’t stop Putin. The upcoming admission of Sweden and Finland into NATO will further exacerbate Russia’s security fears. Russia shares an 832-mile border with Finland. These two countries’ acceptance into the alliance will automatically double the border between NATO and Russia, from around 750 miles to about 1,600. This will likely drive Russia to ratchet up its destabilizing activities in the region, creating a permanent flashpoint in Europe.
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