Many observers say the shift in strategy could reflect President Vladimir Putin’s acknowledgment that his plan for a blitz in Ukraine has failed.
The chief of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said Sunday the change of focus could reflect Putin’s hope to break Ukraine in two, like North and South Korea, and enforce “a line of separation between the occupied and unoccupied regions.”
Russian forces have pounded the outskirts of Kyiv with artillery and air raids from a distance while putting their ground offensive on hold, tactics they also have used in attacking Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy in the northeast. “Russian forces appear to be concentrating their effort to attempt the encirclement of Ukrainian forces directly facing the separatist regions in the east of the country, advancing from the direction of Kharkiv in the north and Mariupol in the south,” the British Ministry of Defense said Sunday.
Philips P. O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, described Saturday's cruise missile strikes on Lviv, near the border with Poland, as part of the Russian strategy to cut off supplies to the Ukrainian forces fighting in the east. Despite Ukrainian and Western fears, the Russian army so far hasn't pursued efforts to bypass Mykolaiv and march on Odesa. Ukrainian authorities have noted that Russia's failure to press its offensive along the coast could be explained by the fact that most of its troops in the south have remained locked in the battle for Mariupol where they have suffered heavy losses.
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