Russia’s war on Ukraine has entered its second year with a universal realization that the world is witnessing a protracted conflict, the deadliest in Europe since World War II, in which Moscow and Kyiv are hoping against long odds for a breakthrough.
Mariia Kurbet reacts next to the grave of her son Vasyl Kurbet, a Ukrainian serviceman killed in Bakhmut, at a cemetery in Bucha, near Kyiv on Feb. 24, 2023, on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. - From Kyiv's war-ravaged outskirts to near the eastern front lines, Ukrainians paid homage on Feb. 24, to the victims of Russia's year-long invasion.
Prospects for a diplomatic resolution remain low while more fighting is on the horizon. Both sides are gearing for a spring offensive, with Russians desperate for a major victory on the battlefield after numerous setbacks and Ukrainians determined to take back more captured territory, predominantly in the south and east.
He announced another half-billion dollars in military aid, in addition to the more than $50 billion provided for weapons and economic assistance. This supply has evolved from relatively unsophisticated howitzers and Javelin missiles in the early days to heavier and longer-range firepower including a Patriot battery and battle tanks.
“I hope that we’re not sitting here a year from now discussing the same things,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND Corp. “The Ukrainians are going to need predictable and sustainable support. ... We are shifting into a really attritional, ugly, crude style — yet effective style — of fighting.”Though Russia and Ukraine envision a spring offensive, the fighting has never stopped during the chilly winter.
“The Russian defense industry is really struggling,” said Shashank Joshi, a visiting fellow in war studies at the King’s College London and defense editor for the Economist magazine. The Wagner Group has a ruthless reputation and has taken its deadly tactics around the world, especially in Africa, where it has shored up dictatorships by snuffing out dissidents.
Ukrainian soldiers ride on an armored vehicle in Novostepanivka, Kharkiv region, on Sept. 19, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If Ukraine cannot recapture more territory and prove itself against the much larger Russian army, pressure will mount on Kyiv to negotiate. That is what Putin wants.
This comes despite several lopsided votes in the United Nations General Assembly, the most recent on Thursday, calling for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine or expressing similar pro-Ukraine sentiment. The resolutions are nonbinding, and the votes include a contingent of abstentions representing on average about 20% of U.N. membership. Some countries feel as if they can support these resolutions but not act against Russia.
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