North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin puts two otherwise isolated leaders on the same page, writes Seong-Hyon Lee.
About the author: Seong-Hyon Lee is a senior fellow at George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations and visiting scholar at Harvard University Asia Center.
This rapid fortification of ties between Russia and North Korea follows Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year. With the invasion dragging on and Putin grappling with a weapons shortage and diplomatic alienation, he has turned to North Korea, eager for its arms and ammunition supply. Conversely, Kim is capitalizing on this scenario to extract military and economic backing from Russia, bolstering his strategic position against the U.S. and its allies in East Asia.
While North Korea may supply substantial armaments, Russia seems poised to furnish Kim with reconnaissance satellites and coveted nuclear-powered submarine technology. This potential exchange has spurred anxiety in South Korea, evoking fears of a renewed Cold War. The historical relationship wasn’t always cordial. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the cash-strapped Russian government demanded that Pyongyang pay back in hard currency the money it owed the Kremlin, which soured the Russo-North Korea relationship.
Should arms deals materialize between the two nations, existing strategies to counter North Korea’s nuclear program will falter, reshaping the security landscape in East Asia. Although sanctions have had some effect, a divided UN Security Council would erode the means to influence Kim’s strategies. An emboldened Kim might opt for aggressive, possibly deadly, shows of force. North Korea has already publicly threatened to deploy nuclear weapons during U.S.-South Korea military drills.
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