If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would likely cause significant casualties, killing or wounding up to 50,000 civilians within weeks, according to a U.S. official.
Russia planned “false flags operations” to justify conflict, including disinformation campaigns, sabotaging infrastructure, or sparking protests or unrest.
Officials expect Russia to test missiles with various ranges including Intercontinental ballistic missiles without nuclear warheads, they said. While the intelligence indicates that Russia continues to ready for a possible invasion, one is not inevitable, said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London based think tank Chatham House.
"That doesn’t make a new invasion inevitable — President Putin has described this as a means of putting pressure on the West that needs to be strung out as long as possible.”
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