Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to uphold a cease-fire in Nagorno-Karabakh and protect its residents. He did neither, perhaps in a purposeful shift toward Turkey.
that Russian peacekeepers would protect the region’s population, maintain a cease-fire, and assure access on the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia, through the Lachin Corridor.Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned that the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, roughly 120,000 people, will leave and he accused Azerbaijan of “ethnic cleansing.” Azerbaijan has insisted that residents can stay, but those fleeing say they do not trust Baku after decades of war.
Many analysts ascribe the Russian failure down to the Kremlin being highly distracted by its war in Ukraine.
Putin has devoted great energy trying to re-create Russia’s lost empire and dominate its ex-Soviet neighbors, so the failure to protect Armenia, a longtime ally, was a striking shift. For other small nations on Russia’s borders, the message was clear: Who could trust Russia in the future? Olesya Vartanyan, an analyst with International Crisis Group, said a study of Russia’s peacekeeping mission showed that it grew less effective after the invasion of Ukraine, as Azerbaijan steadily withdrew cooperation.
“The Russians lied to us and tricked us,” he said. “They told us the peacekeepers would be there and that there would be no more war. Then, at night, they started shelling with artillery and Grads and drones,” he said, referring to Azerbaijani forces. But when Armenia reached out to others, Moscow threatened repercussions. A decade ago, when Armenia, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova planned to sign economic agreements with the European Union, the Kremlin saw it as a threat.
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