The unfolding crisis in Afghanistan poses substantial risks to Russia and Central Asia, even as the Kremlin seeks to claim a propaganda victory over the U.S.
"The Russians feel as though they have achieved a major triumph," Kate Mallinson, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said during a webinar for think tank Chatham House.
Initially, Russia's response to the Taliban's insurgence appeared to celebrate the defeat of the American-backed and trained Afghan government, as well as the U.S. departure. Russia's ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, praised the Taliban's conduct and said the group had helped to make the Afghan capital safer in the first 24 hours after the U.S. exit. This is despite Russia officially recognizing the Taliban as a terrorist organization.
"But I would say that this kind of propaganda victory is more pyrrhic than triumphant," Mallinson added., sending four military planes to evacuate 500 Russian citizens and those of its regional allies. The directive, which came on the orders of President Vladimir Putin, marked an abrupt shift in the Kremlin's stance to the Taliban's takeover.to get people out of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan ahead of an Aug. 31 deadline set by President Joe Biden.
That's because the crisis comes at a time when many Central Asia countries are at their "lowest ebb," Mallinson said, citing disenfranchised populations throughout the region, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and extremely severe drought this year. "If stability holds under the Taliban, and the Taliban keeps to its promise not to let Afghanistan be a base for attacks on Russia and Central Asia, and, ideally, stops the flow of opium, then Russia can live with it," Oliker added. "But things could go badly — Russia will be looking to reinforce Central Asia as needed."
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