For over ten months Russia has been trying to conquer Bakhmut. A surge in fighting suggests that Russia’s generals are desperately trying to deliver it to the Kremlin by Victory Day—whatever the cost
likes a parade. When he invaded Ukraine on February 24th last year, he hoped his “special military operation” would bring triumph within days; some units reportedly had dress uniforms ready packed. Later he hopedin Europe Day procession would coincide with the fall of Mariupol, a port city on the Azov sea. But Ukraine held out for another week, and the parade in Moscow was a damp squib.
The textbooks, when they are written, will surely focus on why the town was ever fought over in the first place. Bakhmut has limited strategic significance. There are better natural defences in the hills to the west of the town. The city itself has been reduced to a pile of smouldering rubble. According to recently leaked Pentagon documents, America has since January been privately urging Ukraine’s leadership to retreat.
Ukraine’s generals argue privately that the course of the fighting has nonetheless vindicated their decision to continue to defend Bakhmut. Some Ukrainian commanders say the losses for Russia around the town have been as high as ten to one against it. Independent observers say this is much too high. Konrad Muzyka, a Polish military expert who visited Bakhmut in March, notes that the casualty ratio has changed over time.
The battle is not over yet. Ukraine has exceeded expectations in Bakhmut, hanging on long after American intelligence thought it would be suffocated. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, which has supplied the majority of Russian cannon fodder in Bakhmut, is publicly complaining that his troops no longer have enough ammunition. Russia’s commanders may be deliberately rationing supplies.
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