Turkey and Russia have agreed to a cease-fire in northwestern Syria's Idlib region. The agreement, however, is unlikely to mark an end to the region's terrible suffering. Here's what you should know about Idlib ⤵️
The province's population more than doubled, to about 3 million people. Most are civilians, of whom many live in camps or rely on some form of humanitarian aid. Some are opposition fighters, among whom jihadist groups are powerful.
Another conundrum: The displaced have nowhere to go. Idlib borders Turkey, which has already taken in about 4 million Syrian refugees. As the Turkish economy has weakened, anti-refugee sentiment has bubbled up. Erdogan has said Turkey cannot take in any more people and has built a border wall. European leaders, too, have no stomach to accept a large number of Syrians, even those fleeing state-sponsored violence.Assad has said that he will retake"every inch" of Syria.
But then, alarmed by the prospect of people approaching the border as they fled the advance, Turkey increased its support for rebels, who pushed back and retook territory. Russia, in turn, doubled down on its air campaign in support of Assad. Turkey once imagined a powerful role for itself in a post-Assad Syria. Now it only has a"plethora of bad options," says Dalay. He believes Turkey's best-case scenario now would be to succeed in persuading Western powers to enforce a no-fly zone over part of Idlib and create an enclave or buffer zone where Syrians who believe they cannot return to Assad-held areas would live under Turkey's protection, without actually crossing its borders.
Although years of talks on Syria have yielded various agreements, there have also been many complaints of violations. Russia claims Turkey has failed to"neutralize" al-Qaida-linked groups among rebels, while Turkey says Russia targets civilians. Russia had already offered Turkey control of an area within Idlib, but it was much smaller than Turkey would have liked.
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