Market Analysis by covering: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares, SPDR® S&P 500, iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
The appetite for risk has taken a hit in recent weeks, although the worst of the selling has, so far, been contained to US stocks, on a year-to-date basis. The rest of the primary markets around the world, by contrast, are still posting gains so far in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close . The relative strength in markets outside the US has helped global asset allocation strategies remain relatively resilient.
But the near-term strength of the risk-on signal is open for debate for this top-down strategy as long as the 50-day average for the ratio remains above its 200-day average, as it still does.) vs. their large-cap brethren . Although renewed optimism for small-cap shares periodically arises, the ratio for small caps vs. large caps continues to show that the trend remains negative for lesser-sized firms.
Meantime, the outlook is skewed to the downside. The OECD today, for example, lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026. “A series of recently announced trade policy measures will have implications for the economic outlook if sustained,” the OECD said. Until there’s more clarity on the “if” part of the analysis, the case for a defensive posture will continue to resonate.
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