RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.

The latest national NBC News poll shows the third-party vote — and especially independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — cutting deeper into former President Donald Trump’s support than President Joe Biden’s, though the movement the other candidates create is within the poll’s margin of error.

“At this stage, appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. This finding, however, contrasts with the conventional political wisdom — as well as the results of other national polls — suggesting that a bigger third-party vote hurts Biden more. The NBC News poll results on Kennedy’s impact are “different than other surveys,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster.

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