Science, Space and Technology News 2024
A Dartmouth study challenges a severe IPCC sea-level rise prediction, demonstrating through high-resolution models that the rapid collapse of Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier this century is highly unlikely, emphasizing the need for accuracy in climate projections.
Though the IPCC designated this specific prediction as “low likelihood,” the potential of the world’s oceans rising by as much as 50 feet as the model projects earned it a spot in the report. At that magnitude, the Florida Peninsula would be submerged, save for a strip of interior high ground spanning from Gainesville to north of Lake Okeechobee, with the state’s coastal cities underwater.
“We’re not reporting that the Antarctic is safe and that sea-level rise isn’t going to continue—all of our projections show a rapid retreat of the ice sheet,” he continues. “But high-end projections are important for coastal planning and we want them to be accurate in terms of physics. In this case, we know this extreme projection is unlikely over the course of the 21st century.
In all their simulations, the researchers found that Thwaites’ ice cliffs never retreated inland at the speed MICI suggests. Instead, without the ice shelf holding the ice sheet back, the movement of the glacier toward the ocean accelerates rapidly, causing the ice sheet to expand away from the interior. This accelerated movement also thins the ice at the glacier’s edge, which reduces the height of the ice cliffs and their susceptibility to collapse.
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