Target, Walmart and other retailers hope to propel strong holiday shopping into December, despite a wave of early purchases and fears over the omicron variant.
blasted holiday deals and Black Friday-style promotions as early as October. Consumers had other motivators this holiday season to buy gifts early, too. Instead of chasing deep discounts or nabbing the hot, must-have gift, many had fears of not finding anything worth buying because of supply chain woes.
For months, shoppers heard about temporarily shuttered factories, congested ports and a shortage of truck drivers. That wave of early shopping may have stolen some of the thunder from major shopping holidays, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The total number of shoppers and average spending dropped during Thanksgiving weekend, which spans from Thursday to Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation. Nearly 180 million Americans shopped during the five-day holiday weekend compared with about 186 million shoppers in 2020 and about 190 million in 2019, the trade group said. Average spending fell, too, with Thanksgiving weekend shoppers forking over an average of $301.27 on holiday-related purchases versus $311.75 in 2020 and $361.90 in 2019, NRF said.marking a 1.4% decrease from year-ago levels, according to data released Tuesday by Adobe Analytics. That is the first time that Adobe has tracked a slowdown in spending on major shopping days since it started reporting on e-commerce transactions in 2012. However, it comes after last holiday season when spending on theThe price point of shopping carts rose by nearly 14% on Cyber Monday — and 19% for the holiday season overall — as some shoppers bought big-ticket items like furniture and others felt the pang of inflation, Adobe said. NRF CEO Matt Shay said early shopping has shaken up the role of peak sales days. Consumers started buying gifts, decor and more in October a year ago to avoid crowds. This year, supply chain concerns pushed up that timetable once again. "The Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday, in particular, are closer to halftime now than the kickoff," he said.The trade group projected spending in November and December will rise between 8.5% and 10.5%, for a total of between $843.4 billion and $859 billion of sales. Holiday retail sales have risen by 4.4% on average over the past five years, NRF said. Last year, they hit an all-time high of $777.3 billion, which represented a 8.2% year over year jump. Steve Sadove, former chairman and CEO of Saks and a current senior advisor for Mastercard, said he expects a strong season for the retail industry. He points to pent-up demand among consumers who have higher levels of savings. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts U.S. retail sales, excluding autos and gas, to grow 7.4% from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 from year-ago levels. It sees sales up 11.1% compared with 2019.some data showed Black Friday and Cyber Monday demand tapering from each of the past two prior years. Mastercard sees particular strength in the luxury space, jewelry and apparel, compared with 2020 and 2019 levels. "Clearly, it's been a spread out season," he said. "Retailers started their promotions early. Black Friday wasn't about just that day."To hit high expectations, retailers will have to overcome fears of the new strain of the coronavirus, nudge shoppers to buy despite scarce deals and fight off a potential December lull.Some shoppers have run into unavailable items. Out-of-stock messages surged by 169% in the month of November compared to pre-pandemic levels in January 2020, according to data from Adobe Analytics. They are more than triple the levels of November 2019. And discounting has been lackluster — even on shopping holidays. On Cyber Monday, for instance, discount levels for electronics were 12% off versus 27% last year, TVs were 13% off versus 18% last year and appliances were 8% off versus 20% last year, according to Adobe. Those discounts are expected to fade even more and settle into the 5% to 10% range in the weeks ahead, the company predicted.. He said some consumers who had planned to book a trip, buy theater tickets or give another experiential gift may opt for goods instead. And even as public health officials and consumers learn more about the variant, he said "there's no need to panic." He said the backdrop looks very different this holiday season, thanks to the majority of Americans being fully vaccinated. "We remain confident that we will continue to have a very positive trajectory in the overall economy and specifically, the retail industry, for this holiday season," he said.A wave of early shopping could increase the risk of a December lull, said Craig Johnson, founder of the consumer research firm CGP. The December lull in the retail industry refers to those few weeks after Black Friday and Cyber Monday and before the final days leading up to Christmas Eve when consumers may feel shopped out and decide to put their wallets aside for a pause in spending. Johnson said he has tracked the lull for more than a decade. As retailers pull promotions earlier and earlier into the season, they can steal sales from later in the season without increasing overall demand, he said.According to his company's estimates, U.S. retail sales online and in stores on Black Friday totaled a record $34.9 billion, up 18% from a year earlier and up 12% from 2019. It is forecasting sales for the entire holiday season, including November and December, to be up 6.7% year over year. He said two wildcards — the omicron variant and the rise of smash-and-grab crimes — could spook customers from returning to stores. In recent weeks,
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