A slow recovery is expected, but consumers are expected to spend as stores reopen.
As retail investors carefully eye the progress of store reopenings while gauging consumer sentiment, some economists expect a slow recovery from the impact of COVID-19 on retail sales, which have also been affected by ongoing social justice protests across the U.S.
The initial prognosis is somewhat encouraging. “Overall, most nonessential retailers are seeing sales productivity of stores that are reopening at a level of at least 50 percent of last year’s volume, with some even greater,” Telsey said in her report. “Sales seem to be driven by some combination of pent-up demand, U.S. government stimulus checks, a desire to return to the pre-COVID-19 normal, and a high rate of promotions for many.
The expected decline of more than 10 percent has total retail sales coming in at $4.894 trillion, “a level not seen since 2016,” eMarketer said in its report, adding that these estimates “assume that widespread social distancing measures, which have gradually been lifted in May, will continue to ease and economic activity slowly resumes in [the third quarter].”
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