A new poll shows Labour's Andy Burnham leading with 45%, Reform UK at 40%, and Restore Britain at 8%, suggesting the right-wing split could hand Burnham a narrow win in the upcoming by-election.
The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for Thursday, has become a focal point for political analysts, with polls indicating a tight race primarily between Labour and Reform UK, but with a third party, Restore Britain , potentially playing a decisive spoiler role.
According to a recent survey by More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab, Labour candidate Andy Burnham leads with 45 percent support, followed closely by Reform UK's Robert Kenyon at 40 percent, while Restore Britain trails at 8 percent. These figures suggest that if Restore Britain voters were to switch their allegiance to Reform UK, Burnham could be overtaken.
The poll of 515 adults, conducted by telephone and online between May 28 and June 12, is the third to highlight the impact of Restore Britain, with more than ten percent of voters still undecided. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, noted that Andy Burnham appears to have the advantage entering the final week, but with Reform only five points behind and many undecided voters, the outcome remains uncertain.
The by-election is seen as a bellwether for broader political dynamics, including the potential for a split on the right wing to benefit a left-leaning candidate. Burnham has indicated that a victory could position him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, adding an extra layer of significance to the result.
In contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has campaigned actively in the constituency, urging voters to back his party as a true alternative to the established order. The presence of Restore Britain, led by former Brexit Party MEP Rupert Lowe, has complicated the picture, with its platform appealing to some of the same voters who might otherwise support Reform.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are polling at just 2 percent and 1 percent respectively, while the Greens stand at 3 percent, making it likely that neither will retain their deposit. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the previous Labour MP, and the constituency has historically been a safe Labour seat.
However, the rise of Reform UK and the fragmentation of the right-wing vote have created a competitive environment. Political commentators are watching closely to see whether the anti-establishment sentiment seen in recent local elections will translate into a significant shift here. The final days of campaigning have been intense, with door-to-door canvassing and public debates.
Both Burnham and Kenyon have emphasised local issues such as economic regeneration, healthcare, and housing, while Restore Britain has focused on national themes like sovereignty and immigration. The outcome could have implications beyond Makerfield, potentially influencing strategies for a general election expected within the next year.
For now, the data suggests that Restore Britain is inadvertently aiding Labour by dividing the opposition, a scenario that Tryl described as a paradox where supporters of a hard-right party are facilitating a radical left-wing government. As the polls narrow, the undecided voters will likely determine the winner. The More in Common poll also indicates that the race is far from over, with a margin of error that could shift the result in either direction.
Meanwhile, the low support for the Conservatives highlights the challenges facing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's party in traditional Labour strongholds. The Liberal Democrats aim to capitalise on discontent with both major parties but have so far failed to gain traction in this northern English constituency. The Greens, while polling weakly, may attract environmentally conscious voters but lack the organisational strength for a breakthrough.
Restore Britain's 8 percent share is critical; if these voters move to Reform, the combined right-wing vote would exceed Burnham's lead. However, Restore Britain's campaign manager asserted that their party offers a distinct vision and will not withdraw. The by-election thus becomes a microcosm of the fragmented political landscape in the UK, where the traditional two-party system is under strain from insurgent movements. The result on Thursday will be analysed for clues about future electoral alliances and policy shifts.
In any case, the Makerfield contest demonstrates how a small party can disproportionately influence the outcome, echoing the dynamics of the Brexit referendum and recent European elections. As the campaign enters its final hours, both Burnham and Kenyon are urging their supporters to turn out, mindful that every vote counts in a race this close. The wider public will be watching to see whether the predicted split actually materialises or if Labour can hold on despite the divided opposition.
Regardless of the result, the by-election has already reshaped the political narrative, bringing attention to the role of minor parties in an increasingly volatile electorate. The coming days will reveal whether Andy Burnham can maintain his lead or if Reform UK, aided by a potential late swing from Restore Britain voters, can achieve a stunning upset.
The implications for national politics are profound, as a Burnham victory would bolster his leadership ambitions, while a Reform win would embolden Farage's movement and further destabilise the Conservative Party. In this context, every poll, every canvass return, and every undecided voter is scrutinised. The More in Common survey underscores the volatility, with a significant portion of the electorate yet to make up their minds.
These voters tend to break against the incumbent in the final days, which could spell trouble for Burnham. Alternatively, they may stay home or vote for Restore, diluting the anti-Labour vote. The strategic calculations are complex, and both major parties are tailoring their messages to appeal to those wavering. Local issues remain paramount; the constituency has faced industrial decline and now seeks new investment.
Both candidates have pledged to bring jobs and improve public services, but their national associations colour their local promises. The by-election serves as a test of whether the Labour Party under Starmer can retain its traditional working-class base or if it is being eroded by the populist right. Makerfield, with its history as a coal mining area, exemplifies the shift from Labour to Reform among some voters.
The outcome will be dissected for months, as it may foreshadow the general election results in similar southern constituencies. For now, the headline numbers show a close contest, with the Restore Britain party as the unexpected kingmaker. Whether their voters will ultimately support or hinder Reform UK remains the key unanswered question. As polling day approaches, the tension mounts, and the final days of campaigning could be decisive.
The More in Common poll, conducted with scientific rigour, provides the most up-to-date snapshot, but the only poll that matters is the one on Thursday. The candidates are spending every available hour on the streets, shaking hands and answering questions. The narrative has shifted from a safe Labour seat to a potential bellwether, and all eyes are on Makerfield.
In the end, the result will be a referendum on the state of British politics: fragmented, uncertain, and subject to sudden shifts. The rest of the country will take note, as politicians in London watch the returns with bated breath. The drama of Makerfield encapsulates the broader trends of disillusionment and realignment that define the current era. Whatever the outcome, it will be a testament to the power of individuals to shape political destinies through their vote.
And as the polls suggest, the Restore Britain factor could be the deciding element in a race that is too close to call
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